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| 2021-01-15 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据世界石油网站1月12日报道 美国政府预测，受原油价格上涨和页岩钻井反弹的推动，明年石油产量将增长约3.5％。 根据美国能源信息署（EIA）的数据，到2022年，石油平均日产量将达到1149万桶。该机构将其今年的产量预估维持在1110万不变。该机构表示，最近的原油价格上涨和钻井平台的增加将帮助美国48州的产量在今年第二季度开始增长。 在去年大流行导致需求下降之前，美国原油产量在去年初攀升至1300万桶以上之后，仍徘徊在约1100万桶/日的水平。贝克休斯的数据显示，美国的石油钻机数量已经连续七周攀升，并且是自5月以来的最高水平。 但是卷土重来可能是渐进的。在沙特阿拉伯上周计划单方面削减未来数月产量的计划令市场感到惊讶之后，油价飙升至每桶50美元上方，许多钻探者表示，他们可能抵制如此飙升的诱惑。现在，大多数页岩油生产商将更多的精力放在清理债务和兑现投资者的承诺上，以保持财政纪律。 先锋自然资源公司首席执行官斯科特·谢菲尔德本月早些时候表示，预计未来几年美国的石油产量将基本保持在约1100万桶/日的水平。 根据该机构周二发布的《短期能效展望》，美国能源信息署将其对西德克萨斯中质油的2021年价格预测从12月的每桶45.78美元上调至49.70美元，并发布了2022年的价格预测为每桶49.81美元。预计2021年和2022年布伦特原油均价分别为每桶52.70美元和53.44美元。 尽管EIA调高了价格预测，但它预计进一步的涨幅将受到全球高库存和过剩原油产能的限制。该机构表示，全球产量上升可能会由于今年第二季度的适度下降价格压力而出现。 EIA预计，今年美国的石油需求为1951万桶，而此前的每日预测为1979万桶。到2021年，全球平均日供应量为9713万桶，而此前为9742万桶。预计全球需求为9780万，低于先前预测的9820万。 王磊 摘译自 世界石油 原文如下： U.S. projects higher oil output in 2022 from rebounding shale The U.S. government is forecasting oil production to rise about 3.5% next year spurred by higher crude prices and a rebound in shale drilling. Oil output will average 11.49 million barrels a day in 2022, according to the Energy Information Administration. The agency, which left its production estimate for this year unchanged at 11.1 million, said that recent crude price increases and rig additions will help production in the Lower 48 states begin to rise in the second quarter of this year. U.S. crude production is hovering at about 11 million barrels a day, after climbing above 13 million early last year before the pandemic crushed demand. The U.S. oil rig count has climbed for seven straight weeks and is at the highest level since May, Baker Hughes data show. But a comeback will likely be gradual. While oil prices surged above $50 a barrel after Saudi Arabia last week surprised the market with a plan to unilaterally slash production in the coming months, many drillers say they may resist the temptation to turn on the taps so quickly. Most shale producers are now more focused on clearing debt and honoring investor pledges to keep fiscal discipline. Pioneer Natural Resources Co. CEO Scott Sheffield said earlier this month that U.S. oil output is expected to remain roughly flat at about 11 million barrels a day for the next several years. The EIA raised its 2021 price forecast for West Texas Intermediate to $49.70 a barrel from its December estimate of $45.78 a barrel, and introduced its 2022 price forecast at $49.81 a barrel, according to the agency’s Short-Term Emergy Outlook released on Tuesday. Brent prices are forecast to average $52.70 a barrel and $53.44 a barrel in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Even though the EIA boosted its price forecasts, it expects further gains to be limited by high global inventories and surplus crude production capacity. Rising global production will likely emerge as a moderate downward price pressure in the second quarter of the year, the agency said. The EIA also sees U.S. petroleum demand this year at 19.51 million versus 19.79 million barrels a day forecast previously. Global supply for 2021 will average 97.13 million barrels a day versus 97.42 million previously. World demand is seen at 97.8 million, down from a prior forecast of 98.2 million. |
