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| 2021-01-08 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据油价新闻1月5日消息称，过去5年，俄罗斯对欧洲的燃料油供应平均约为50万桶/天，但自2019年以来，这一趋势开始逐渐下降，并越来越低。2020年的供应量约为37.5万桶/天，11月至12月的供应量明显高于前几个月。原先欧洲向美国的出口计划进行重新调整，从许多方面挽救了俄罗斯的西北炼油厂，因为在快速除硫的环境中，没有多少其他市场出口会保留下来。随着相当一部分欧洲需求的消失，美国炼油商将相对廉价的HSFO作为二次焦化原料，这似乎对双方都有利。然而，从2020年11月起，俄罗斯的燃料油出口已开始回到以前的分配水平，因为运往美国的货物越来越少，而对欧洲的出口一直在飙升。 俄罗斯减少燃料油供应也有相当客观的原因。首先，飓风停运对11月的炼油业务产生了影响——在不到两周的时间内，受飓风Zeta和COVID-19影响，11月中旬的炼油业务量下降了约15%。第二，季节性维护也可能是供应减少的一部分，在2020年的最后两个月中，多达250万桶/天的炼油产能被削减。第三，实时统计数据有时可能会有些偏差，因为通常情况下，HSFO的来源显示的是船对船的转运地点，这意味着来自Skaw或Malta的某些商品实际上可能来自俄罗斯。 对欧洲出口的上升也可能受到某些统计数据的支持，因为2020年12月，高硫燃料油供应的主要市场是中东，而不是欧洲。在欧洲出口方面，俄罗斯的燃料油主要在波罗的海地区生产，大部分出口到阿姆斯特丹-鹿特丹-安特卫普(ARA)地区，从那里可以很容易地进入沙特阿拉伯等市场。确实如此，上个月欧洲对中东的燃料油出口到10月份同比增长300%，有超过100万吨的HSFO向东运输。2020年12月，这一趋势进一步加剧，总共有700万桶来自欧洲的燃料油交付给了中东客户，总共交付了19批货物。 对HSFO如此旺盛的需求提升了俄罗斯2020年11月至12月的下游前景，这一季节并不是高峰期。如果要看一看出口量，很明显俄罗斯在乌斯特-卢加的主要HSFO港口在应对今年的需求下滑方面要比地区竞争对手好得多。乌斯特-卢加燃料油年底出口1550万吨，同比仅下降2%左右，而克莱佩达、里加、西拉梅等燃料油出口则出现了两位数的下降。燃料油出口是少数几款或多或少保持了2019年排名的产品之一(还有石脑油和汽油)，包括2020年5月至7月远东地区的HSFO激增，使Nakhodka年度装载量增加了一倍以上。 乍一看，俄罗斯对美国的HSFO出口下降幅度之大，但这未必是下降即将到来的迹象对HSFO的需求部分受季节性的影响，因为冬季随着空调使用量的减少，HSFO在发电部门的使用直线下降。总体而言，高硫燃料油仍将是USGC炼油厂的一个很好的原料，特别是考虑到许多炼油厂在过去几年中投资了脱硫能力。因此，维持俄罗斯HSFO出口的高水平将在很大程度上取决于中东市场的饱和程度—沙特的进一步高需求或新加坡地区洗涤器使用量的增加，将分流墨西哥湾沿岸的数量。 朱佳妮 摘译自 油价新闻 原文如下： European Boosts Imports Of Russian Fuel Oil Supplies of Russian fuel oil to Europe have averaged roughly 500kbpd in the past 5 years, although since 2019 the trend started to gradually drop increasingly lower – this year (i.e. 2020) they have been around 375kbpd, all this with November-December being significantly better than the months preceding them. The reorientation of erstwhile Europe-bound exports towards the United States has in many ways saved Russia’s Northwestern refineries, as not many other market outlets would be remaining in a rapidly de-sulphurizing environment. With a fair share of European demand out, US refiners have availed themselves of relatively cheap HSFO as a secondary coker feedstock, seemingly to the mutual benefit of both. Yet from November 2020 onwards, Russian exports of fuel oil have started to move back to their erstwhile allocation as US-bound cargoes are becoming rarer and exports to Europe have been on the surge. There remain quite objective reasons for Russian fuel oil supplies to drop, too. First and foremost, the hurricane shutdowns have left their imprint on November refining – refining runs in mid-November dropped by some 15% within the timeframe of less than 2 weeks, spurred by Hurricane Zeta and COVID-19 ramifications. Second, seasonal maintenance might also be part of the jigsaw puzzle, with as much as 2.5 mbpd worth of refining capacity taken offstream during the last 2 months of 2020. Third, real-time statistics might be a bit skewed in that oftentimes the source of the HSFO is showing the site of the ship-to-ship transfer, meaning that some of the supplies that officially come from Skaw or Malta might be in fact of Russian origin. Europe’s ascent might be underpinned by some statistical peculiarities, too, as the main market for High Sulphur Fuel oil supplies in December 2020 was the Middle East, not Europe. In terms of European exports most of Russia’s fuel oil, which is generally produced in the Baltic area, is being exported to the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area, from where it could easily move further towards markets like Saudi Arabia. And so it did, last month European fuel oil exports towards the Middle East have surged 300% month-on-month to October, with more than a million tons of HSFO moving eastwards. The trend surged even higher in December 2020 when a total of 7 MMbbls of fuel oil from Europe reached Middle Eastern customers, across 19 deliveries. Such a healthy demand for HSFO has boosted Russia’s downstream prospects in November-December 2020, a season that cannot be considered as being peak periods. If one is to look at the exported volumes, it becomes evident that Russia’s main HSFO port in Ust-Luga has coped much better with this year’s demand slump than regional competitors. Set for a year-end fuel oil export tally of 15.5 million tons, Ust-Luga only dropped some 2% year-on-year whilst the likes of Klaipeda, Riga, Sillamae and others have witnessed double-digit decreases. Fuel oil exports were one of the few products that more or less managed to maintain their 2019 standings (along with naphtha and gasoline), including a rather unexpected HSFO surge in the Far East in May-July 2020, more than doubling the annual tally of Nakhodka loadings. As significant as the drop in Russian HSFO exports to the United States might seem at first glance, it need not be a sign of an impending decline. Demand for HSFO is partially subject to seasonability as its usage in the power generation sector plummets in the winter as air-conditioning usage decreases. Overall high-sulfur fuel oil would still be a great feedstock for USGC refiners, especially considering that many of them invested in desulfurization capacity over the past couple of years. Therefore, maintaining high Russian HSFO exports will largely depend on the saturation of the Middle Eastern market – further instances of high Saudi demand or of increased scrubber usage in the Singapore area will divert volumes away from the Gulf Coast. |
