|2020-01-22 来源： 中国石化新闻网|
中国石化新闻网讯 据海上石油新闻1月21消息称，DNV GL发布的研究报告显示，今年对油气行业增长的乐观情绪有所减弱。与此同时，石油价格和全球经济状况也存在不确定性，而这是该行业报告的最大增长障碍。
DNV GL石油天然气首席执行官Liv A. Hovem表示：“尽管该行业面临持续的不确定性、不断增长的复杂性和新的风险，但我们也看到，随着世界转向低碳能源的未来，该行业将做出大胆的决定，提高效率，迎接长期的挑战。我们的研究表明，石油和天然气行业已经把脱碳作为其议程的中心，尽管市场环境的不确定性和2020年行业增长的停滞预期，脱碳仍将是当务之急。”
曹海斌 摘译自 海上石油新闻
Oil and gas sector to boost investment in the energy transition: DNV GL
Research published by DNV GL reveals that optimism for growth in the oil and gas industry has weakened for this year. This comes amid uncertainty around the oil price and global economic conditions, the top barriers to growth reported by the industry.
While two thirds (66%) of senior oil and gas professionals are confident of industry growth in 2020, this is down 10 percentage points from the 76% recorded in 2019 – the peak of a surge in confidence from a low of only 32% in 2017. Under half (46%) of respondents think that more large, capital-intensive projects will be approved this year compared to 2019, down from two thirds (67%) last year.
Capital may not flow as freely into large oil and gas projects in 2020, but companies operating across the industry’s value chain expect to boost investment this year in areas that will allow them to forge a long-term position in the energy transition. Those reporting that their organization is actively adapting to a less carbon-intensive energy mix jumped to 60% in 2020 from 44% two years ago.
While the sector’s growth hangs in the balance for 2020, oil and gas leaders are optimistic that they will weather the storm, drawing on hard-earned cost efficiencies from the past five years to make margin. Some 64% predict their organizations will hit profit targets this year (largely consistent with 62% in 2019), and nearly half (46%) say their companies would still achieve acceptable profits if the oil price were to average less than USD50 per barrel. This is a large proportion, given that only one of the past 15 years (2016) saw annual average prices under USD50 a barrel.
“While the industry is experiencing persistent uncertainty, growing complexity, and new risks, we also see an industry taking bold decisions, building greater efficiencies and rising to long-term challenges as the world pivots towards a lower carbon energy future,” said Liv A. Hovem, CEO, DNV GL - Oil & Gas. “Our research shows that the oil and gas industry has placed decarbonization at the centre of its agenda, and it will remain a priority despite uncertainty from volatile market conditions and stalling expectations for industry growth in 2020.”
DNV GL’s research shows that more oil and gas companies than ever are taking action to decarbonize, with the proportion expecting to increase or maintain investment in decarbonization rising sharply from 54% to 71% in just 12 months. Significantly, they are pursuing multiple routes, including diversifying into renewable energy, decarbonizing oil and gas production, and increasing investment in decarbonized gas such as hydrogen (produced from electrolysis and renewables, or from natural gas combined with carbon capture and storage).
Oil and gas companies’ plans to increase investment in renewable energy sources is up from 34% in 2019 to 44% in 2020. Offshore wind leads this effort, with 63% of organisations expecting to increase their investment, up from 40% last year.